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Supply & Demand
Supply & Demand
Demand Forecast Model
Forecasting Process of Electricity Consumption and Peak Demand Model
Overview of Electricity Consumption Forecast Models
| Classification | Feature |
|---|---|
| Electricity Panel Model (Main model) |
Electricity consumption was forecast based on the panel data analysis on about 180 countries and changes in GDP and electricity prices. |
| Gross Energy Panel Model | Electricity consumption was forecast based on the relative prices (electricity price/total energy prices) instead of absolute prices in the similar electricity panel model. |
| Time Series Model | Electricity consumption was forecast on the assumption that future electricity demand follows the patterns and trends of the past demand data. |
| Structural Break model | Electricity consumption was forecast based on economic and social changes (demography and alternative energy prices). |
| Micro Model | Sum of the forecasts in residential, commercial and industrial (10 parts) areas. |
Overview of Peak Demand Forecast Models
| Classification | Feature |
|---|---|
| Macro Model (Main Model) |
This model was developed to identify the relationship between peak load and electricity consumption. Temperature variability in peak load was also considered in this model. |
| Time Series Model | The annual peak value from the hourly forecast data of electricity demand and used as the data of peak load forecast. |
| Structural Break model | Electricity consumption was forecast based on structural changes regarding peak load, electricity consumption and temperatures. |
| Micro Model | The peak demand was calculated by dividing the annual electricity consumption by the hourly demand at the time of peak load. |